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2015 D1 XC Conference Weekend Preview - RunnerSpace.com/College

Published by
DyeStatCOLLEGE.com   Oct 29th 2015, 3:52pm
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The Big Dogs Will Race Hard This Weekend

Published by Adam Schneider/RunnerSpace.com on October 29th, 2015

(rankings are from runnerspace.com/college on October 26th)

 

Every good runner has a goal to win a conference championship. In cross country you don’t have to win an individual championship to feel a sense of accomplishment if you can make the more attainable goal of winning a team championship. Not only do teams want to win conference championships this weekend but coaches want to set their teams for the NCAA Championships. 

 

There is no other pressure like the last chance for athletes. It is not guaranteed the teams that are setting their line-ups will even win their conference meets, especially in the ultra-tough Pac-12, ACC and Big 10 Championships and the likely spectacular Mountain West women’s team championship. An athlete’s rise in the echelon of a team should improve the team’s performance though and will make revelations regarding the quality of a team. 

 

The cream has to rise to the top or the season could be over for the athlete and the team. As Arkansas coach Lance Harter related, “the hay is in the barn and everybody knows it is time to get going.” In looking at the conference championships the teams that must rise to even qualify out of the regionals as an at-large include Stanford men and women, Wisconsin men and women, Villanova and Ole Miss men, Michigan State, Georgetown and West Virginia women and and many others. The teams mentioned started the season in the top ten but have not proven themselves over the season. Injuries have affected these teams but also coaches have elected to save some of the individuals for the more important fights. 

 

Friday October 30th

Pac-12 Championships

 

The Pac-12 meet will be in near-freezing Colfax, Washington (the far east central part of Washington). In below 40 degree temperatures at race time observers will get to watch a titanic battle between #1 Colorado, #3 Oregon, and #4 Stanford on the men’s side and #2 Oregon, #6 Colorado, #10 Stanford and #11 Washington on the women’s side. The Colorado men are still working with their championships line-up and considering redshirting two-time top NCAA top ten runner junior Ben Saarel. Freshmen John Dressel (46th at Wisconsin Adidas) and Ryan Forsyth (51st) are battling to become Colorado’s #5 runner and alleviate coach Wetmore’s stress about his decision. 

 

Stanford was the NCAA runner-up last year after finishing third at the Pac-12 meet and we will likely see the complete Cardinal line-up (haven’t seen their top seven run together all year). All-americans Jim and Joe Rosa along with Sean McGorty will challenge for the win. Oregon will be led by two-time NCAA cross country champion Edward Cheserek controlling the race. This year the Duck’s track credentials are paying off with junior Jake Leingang and sophomore Travis Neuman becoming solid #2 and #3 runners for the Ducks with true freshmen Matthew Maton and Tanner Anderson challenging them. 

 

The #2 Oregon women were impressive at the Washington Invitational with an average time of 19:58 for the 6000m course. All Cash, Waverly Neer, Maggie Schmaedick, Molly Grabill, Frida Berge, and Annie Leblanc are a solid top six and now high school superstar Sarah Baxter who is starting to show signs of that ability after an injury-riddled senior year of high school. Erin Clark led #6 Colorado at D1 Pre-Nationals with a victory and she is leading an experience Colorado squad. Stanford is led by the return of 2013 NCAA fourth-placer Aisling Cuffe (Washington Invitational winner). Sophomore Elise Cranny was 12th last year but has yet to run this year. So far junior Vanessa Fraser has been the only runner to show progress from last year but that does not indicate what will happen at this point in time of the season. 

 

I think the Colorado men and Oregon women will win. Other teams in the top 20 (or just outside) will battle with them (UCLA and Washington men and #17 California women) and try to establish their reputation. NCAA favorites Edward Cheserek of Oregon and Aisling Cuffe of Stanford will likely win the individual races. Cheesecake will likely be challenged by the strong Stanford trio and Colorado’s top four. Cuff will likely be challenged again by Washington Invitational runner-up Alli Cash, Oregon track all-Americans Waverly Neer and Molly Grail, and Pre-Nationals winner Erin Clark.

 

ACC Championships

 

The ACC championships have added some importance this year with the continued improvement of several teams. #2 Syracuse, #9 Virginia, #16 Louisville and #19 North Carolina State lead the charge of top teams on the men’s side.  #8 Virginia and #9 North Carolina State are potential NCAA trophy teams this.year. Virginia was third at Wisconsin Adidas with a strong pack of runners. True freshman Ryen Frazier had her first 6000m experience at the Wisconsin Adidas Invitational and she should be the favorite here. The men’s race will be very competitive with defending ACC champion Martin Hehir and Syracuse teammate Justyn Knight and Louisville’s Ernest Kibet and Edwin Kibichiy

 

Mountain West Championships 

 

In his third season with #4 Boise State, head coach Cory Ihmels has made the Broncos a powerhouse for women’s running like he did with Iowa State. Freshman Allie Ostrander set the meet record at the prestigious Wisconsin Adidas Invitational by beating NCAA track champions Molly Seidel of Notre Dame and Dominique Scott of Arkansas. She is the favorite at Mountain West but #1 New Mexico will battle to get each of the next five spots. Senior Courtney Frerichs, junior Rhona Auckland, and sophomore Alice Wright will challenge for the win and challenge for the top ten at the NCAA meet. Boise State also has excellent depth and it will be hard for other athletes on other teams to make the top 10 outside of D1 Pre-Nationals runner-up Hannah Everson of Air Force.

 

SEC Championships

 

Arkansas is looking for another sweep of the team titles. #7 Arkansas women were a well-back second at Wisconsin Adidas with a mostly different team from last year. They will attempt to win their third consecutive team title and win their 16th title (they have only finished lower than twice, third in 2003 and 2009) and in their 25th year of being in the SEC. Senior Dominique Scott will try to earn her third SEC cross country title and she is leading a solid group including talented freshman Devin Clark. There are several strong challengers for the individual title. Mississippi State sports talented middle distance runners NCAA 1500m champion Rhiannwedd Price and Marta Freitas. Tennessee’s Chelsea Blaase was third at Pre-Nationals and dominated the “B” race of the Greater Louisville Classic. Also dangerous is Texas A&M’s Karis Jochen on her home course and Pan Am Junior 5000m champion Rachael Reddy of Alabama. 

 

#10 Arkansas men have replaced 2014 #1 Stanley Kebenei with two runners, Frankline Tonui and Alex George. The Razorbacks will attempt to win their sixth consecutive team title and the school's 23rd team title. #12 Mississippi men were in a good position at Wisconsin Adidas but then backed off. Their ranking is based on their third place position at the Greater Louisville Classic and last year’s performance. The Rebels may be holding off until this meet. Arkansas’ Tonui and George will be favored for the individual title along with MJ Erb of Mississippi.

 

Saturday October 31st

Big East Championships

 

#3 Providence steadily rose through the season until the Wisconsin Adidas Invitational. There, co-#1 Catarina Rocha, along Sarah Collins, did not run but with her in the race they likely would have been second behind #1 New Mexico. Without all-American Sarah Collins, Providence was 13th at the 2014 NCAA meet and they have progressed this year.  #15 Georgetown also missed their #1, Samantha Nadel, at the Pre-National Invitational. Both of these top women’s teams have the potential to trophy at the NCAA meet. 

 

#13 Georgetown men were fifth at NCAA D1 Pre-Nationals with Jonathan Green leading the Hoyas again. #18 Villanova men have struggled behind their top three runners (led by Patrick Tiernan). Both teams are struggling with their #4/#5 runners. It is time for these runners to step up for these teams to have a trophy or top-10 finish at the NCAA meet.

 

Providence’s Collins and Rocha along with Nadel, Haley Pierce (she has not run well this year) and Andrea Keklak of Georgetown will battle for the women’s individual titles. Two-time defending champion Tiernan is a solid favorite ahead of Green and Butler’s Erik Peterson for the men’s title.

 

Big 12 Championships

 

#8 Oklahoma State is looking to repeat. With senior Craig Nowak, the expected #1, running unattached much of the year and 48th at the Crimson Classic it will be hard for the Cowboys to trophy this year at the NCAA meet. Sophomore Cerake Geberkidane has been undefeated this year but will face his toughest competition to date. Including winning a silver medal at the Pan Am Juniors and winning the US junior 10,000m championship Cerake has been a lot more confident and aggressive runner. The normal depth for OSU has not surfaced. #20 Oklahoma has run well when they have used their top seven. Brandon Doughty and Jacob Burcham have been a solid 1-2 all year for the Sooners. Geberkidane will likely by challenged by Doughty and Burcham for the individual title. 

 

#13 Iowa State women were seventh at Wisconsin Adidas without expected #1 runner, but injury prone the last year, Bethanie Brown. Perez Rotich (23rd) and Erin Hooker (24th) led the Cyclones to a 7th place finish at Wisconsin Adidas. Oklahoma State has avoided the injury bug so far this year and they could challenge Iowa State for the title. Sophomore Ingeborg Loevnes has settled in as a strong #1 with veteran Natalie Baker and freshman Katie Spencer proving to be a solid top three as NCAA indoor 800m runner-up sophomore Kaela Edwards and sophomore Aurora Dybedokken are helping to develop a strong top-5. This race could be a coming out party for the Cowboys. 

 

 

Maggie Montoya of Baylor (13th at Wisconsin Adidas) is probably the favorite with Rotich and Hooker of Iowa State. If they were healthy Jillian Forsey and Maggie Drazba would challenge and put West Virginia solidly in the team race.

 

November 1st

Big 10 Championships

 

We will watch closely what happens in Indiana on Sunday. With so many questions about all the top teams and individuals at the Big 10 Championships a lot will be answered in the last major meet of the weekend.  Michigan is the top seed for women’s and men’s (#5) races and a Wolverine sweep is an exciting proposition. #5 Michigan is a big favorite over underperforming #12 Michigan State and #19 Wisconsin. A healthy Spartan or Badger team could be the favorites for this race. #20 Penn State has battled well all year and they were tenth at the Wisconsin Adidas Invitational. 

 

The men’s and women’s individual races will be battles. On the women’s side Michigan’s Erin Finn and Michigan State’s Rachel Schulist are the known favorites but Shannon Osika of Michigan has been right behind Finn all year and 2014 NCAA runner-up junior Sarah Disanza of Wisconsin may run depending on her health.  

 

The men’s team race should be good with solid #5 Michigan favored over struggling teams, #11 Indiana and #14 Wisconsin. Michigan’s Mason Ferlic has won two of his races so far this year and he leads two of his teammates who missed all of last year in cross country, juniors Connor Mora and Nick Renberg, and all six of his teammates who ran at the NCAA meet last year (11th at 2014 NCAA meet). Wisconsin returned six of its seven from last year’s NCAA meet but only defending champion junior Malachi Schrobilgen and sophomore Morgan McDonald have run well this year. Indiana is missing their 2014 NCAA #1 Matthew Schwartzer (43rd) due to injury. 

 

Purdue’s Matt McClintock was 27th at the NCAA D1 Pre-Nationals but had run well before that and he should challenge Ferlic and Schrobilgen for the individual title.



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